BUYER BEWARE: NHL FREE AGENTS THAT TEAMS SHOULD AVOID THIS OFFSEASON
The 2024 NHL free agency signing period begins at noon ET on Monday afternoon with players like Sam Reinhart, Steven Stamkos and Jake Guentzel looking like the top players to hit the open market (assuming they do not re-sign before then).
They will be the most sought after players and produce the biggest bidding wars, and they might end up being worth it.
Not every player will be worth what they are signed for, however. So let us take a look at four unrestricted free agents that teams should be avoiding.
Jonathan Marchessault, forward
Marchessault's 42 goals for Vegas during the 2023-24 season were the second-most of any player eligible for unrestricted free agency this summer, trailing only the 57 scored by Florida's Sam Reinhart.
That will almost certainly make him an attractive player. But the problem with unrestricted free agency is you typically end up playing top dollar for a player that has likely already played their best hockey for somebody else. Marchessault fits that description perfectly.
He is going to be 34 years old this season, is almost certainly looking at a raise over his $5M per year salary and is unlikely to ever score that many goals in a single season again.
Nikita Zadorov, defense
Zadorov is the type of player that is just waiting to get overpaid on the open market. Listed at 6-foot-6 and 248 pounds, he is the type of big physical defender that general managers absolutely love regardless of whether or not they can play.
Add in the fact he is coming off a strong postseason showing and general managers are going to let recency bias kick in and overvalue a player that probably isn't anything more than a good No. 5 or 6 defenseman. Let somebody else overpay.
Anthony Mantha, forward
Mantha had a really strong season in 2023-24 for Washington and Vegas, scoring 23 goals in 74 games. The concern here is entirely built around sustainability whether or not he can repeat it. A lot of his goal-scoring success was driven by the fact he scored on more than 20% of his shots during the season.
Most players, even the best players, do not shoot at that high of a percentage. Mantha's career shooting percentage is just 12.6% and was just 9% during the 2022-23 season. If he regresses back to that level that takes a lot of goals off his total.
Sean Monahan, forward
A very similar situation to Mantha in that Monahan had an outstanding season in 2023-24, but there should be some serious concern as to whether or not he can repeat it.
After scoring just 24 goals over the previous three seasons, Monahan scored 26 during the 2023-24 season and like Mantha saw a significant jump in his shooting percentage.
Relying on players that needed a shooting percentage spike to boost their goal-scoring numbers is not normally a recipe for success.
If you can get players like that on a cheap, team-friendly one-year deal it might be worth it. But a long-term deal for big money is the type of thing that will eventually lead to a cap-crushing contract.
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